Duke Sizemore here, and Atlanta has made it OFFICIAL: Devin Carter is on waivers, Lamont Butler is out too, and Memphis is carrying one brutal late-season baseline into the preseason! Here’s what we’ve got today: the Hawks’ roster cuts, a Grizzlies slide that absolutely jumps off the page, and why the COURT VISION model is staying quiet when the data says stay quiet.
Okay okay okay, Atlanta first. Devin Carter has officially been waived. He’s owed a guaranteed $5,158,080 this season, and Atlanta is also set to decline that $7,370,897 fourth-year option for 2027-28. Carter now has to clear waivers before he can become a free agent and sign somewhere else. The Hawks also waived Lamont Butler. Elsewhere on the transaction wire, Taj Gibson has been waived by New Orleans, while Phoenix’s Mark Williams is listed with a left shoulder injury.
Now Memphis — THIS is the number that has me fired up. The Grizzlies finished their tracked stretch with SIX consecutive losses and a 62.8-point recent Elo drop. SIXTY-TWO POINT EIGHT! The low point was a 147-101 road loss at Utah, where Memphis shed 29.4 Elo points in one night. They followed that with a 132-101 loss at Houston to close the run at 25-58 and a last Elo of 1272.3.
The preseason carry number resets Memphis to 1352, but they remain 28th in the rankings. And that roster enters the preseason with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Zach Edey, and Scotty Pippen Jr. all listed out for the season. That’s not a game prediction; that’s the baseline Memphis has to climb from.
And the wider market? Nothing qualifying has moved since September 12. Zero. So we are NOT manufacturing a trend where there isn’t one. No current games either, and the next confirmed matchup in the data is Miami at Toronto on October 3.
One model number before we roll: over 1,246 graded games, COURT VISION sits at 68.3 percent accuracy. Its predicted home-win rate is 56.44 percent versus an actual 55.06 — a 1.38-point systematic home bias — and the live home-court constant is 50 Elo points, re-fitted from results.
Roster moves are happening, preseason is coming, and the numbers are WAITING. I’m Duke Sizemore, and I’ll catch you tomorrow!