Duke Sizemore here, and Atlanta just put a former first-rounder on the waiver track while Boston’s numbers are flashing RED heading toward preseason! Here’s what we’ve got today: Devin Carter’s looming exit, Jayson Tatum’s knee status, and a Detroit-Boston projection with some serious math behind it.
Okay okay okay, Atlanta first. The Hawks intend to waive Devin Carter after acquiring him from Sacramento this offseason. Atlanta also reportedly plans to decline his $7.37 million team option for 2027-28, while Carter is still owed $5.158 million this season whether he gets claimed or not. That is the clearest fresh roster move on a September board where the power market itself has produced ZERO qualifying movers.
Now THIS Boston trajectory has my attention. The Celtics’ listed sequence ended with three straight losses to Philadelphia: 113-97, 106-93, and 109-100. That stretch helped drive a 43.1-point recent Elo decline. Forty-three point one! And Jayson Tatum is currently day-to-day with knee soreness. Boston also has Jordan Walsh locked into a reported three-year, $15 million extension.
So what does the model do with Boston against Detroit on October 20? Detroit comes in at 1671.7 Elo against Boston at 1660.2, and once the 50-point home-court setting is included, the Pistons get a 62-point Elo differential. Base Detroit win probability: 58.76 percent. Tatum’s current designation barely nudges the calculation, and with no rest adjustment, the final number lands at 58.78 percent Detroit. That is precision, baby!
And know the calibration behind that number: COURT VISION has graded 1,246 games at 68.3 percent accuracy with a .206 Brier score. The model has predicted home teams at 56.44 percent while they’ve actually won 55.06 percent — a 1.38-point home bias worth keeping on the radar.
No stale title-race theater, no recycled Summer League noise. The next confirmed game on this board is Miami-Toronto preseason on October 3. Until then, we track the moves and we track the numbers. Duke Sizemore, signing off — I’ll catch you tomorrow!