Duke Sizemore here, and the NBA transaction wire is MOVING — because New Orleans is reshaping the roster, Sacramento has Ben Simmons, and the futures board just went absolutely vertical! Here’s what we’ve got today: fresh deals, enormous preseason market swings, and a COURT VISION model that’s grading its own homework.
Okay okay okay, New Orleans first! The Pelicans sent Jordan Hawkins, Micah Peavy, a future second-rounder AND a second-round pick swap to Memphis for AJ Johnson and Taj Gibson. Then New Orleans waived Gibson. That is roster churn with a purpose, and the market-blended rating responded: Pelicans up 88.8 points since September 8, and up 74.9 versus September 5.
But somehow that is NOT the biggest move on the board! The Clippers jumped 116.5 points day over day. That comes alongside massive league news: the NBA stripped Los Angeles of five first-round picks, fined the franchise 30 million dollars and suspended Steve Ballmer over Kawhi Leonard-related cap circumvention. Remember, these are futures-market reactions in preseason — nobody won a basketball game to create these moves.
And the board is swinging BOTH ways! Indiana: down 93.9. Philadelphia: down 85.1. Oklahoma City: down 65.2, with Lu Dort headed to Atlanta in a three-team trade. Meanwhile, the Elo board still has New York first at 1691, San Antonio at 1682, and Oklahoma City at 1669. That top three is TIGHT!
One more fresh transaction: Ben Simmons has a one-year deal with Sacramento. Keep that one on the radar as camps approach.
Now I LOVE this part: how good has the model actually been? Across 1,246 graded games, COURT VISION sits at 68.3 percent accuracy with a .206 Brier score. Its average predicted home-win rate is 56.44 percent; the actual number is 55.06. Translation: a 1.38-percentage-point historical lean toward the home team. Small — but measurable, and that is exactly the kind of number you track.
No stale Summer League theater today. The games are done, so we move forward. Transactions are flying, markets are reacting, and preseason is officially getting interesting. This is COURT VISION: The Daily Brief. Duke Sizemore, out!