Duke Sizemore here, and MEMPHIS, we need to talk about that finish! Here’s what we’ve got today: the Grizzlies carry a brutal late-season slide into preseason, their roster is already taking hits, and the Detroit-Boston model gives us a fascinating early number to chew on!
Okay okay okay, Memphis first. The Grizzlies finished 25-and-58, and their final six listed games were six straight losses. But the number that JUMPS off the page is 62.8 Elo points lost over that closing stretch. And I mean THAT is a slide! The biggest single hit came at Utah: a 147-to-101 loss that knocked 29.4 points off their Elo by itself. Then Houston closed the book with a 132-to-101 win over Memphis.
Now carry that into preseason: Memphis sits at a 1302.3 preseason Elo, 29th in the league. Zach Edey and Scotty Pippen Jr. are listed out for the season, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has agreed to a Grizzlies buyout with plans to join Philadelphia after clearing waivers. That is not a quiet reset. That is a team entering camp with serious ground to make up.
Now THIS is the part that has my calculator screaming: Detroit versus Boston on October 20. The model has a 62-point Elo gap including home court, producing a 58.76 percent base probability for Detroit. Jayson Tatum’s day-to-day designation barely nudges the calculation, roughly six-hundredths of a point in the weighted injury adjustment, and the final Detroit probability lands at 58.78 percent. Tiny adjustment, precise result — I LOVE seeing exactly where the number comes from!
And remember, this is preseason analysis. The next confirmed game in the data is Miami at Toronto on October 3. No fresh Summer League games, and the title board hasn’t meaningfully changed, so I’m not selling you yesterday’s numbers as today’s news.
That’s your COURT VISION Daily Brief! Watch Memphis, watch those injury reports, and watch that model as real games get closer. Duke Sizemore signing off, and I will catch you tomorrow!