Duke Sizemore here, and SACRAMENTO is making the roster move while the power board refuses to budge! Here’s what we’ve got today: Ben Simmons is officially a King, the market is dead steady, and I’m digging into the model’s own report card because these numbers deserve the spotlight!
Okay okay okay, Sacramento first. Simmons lands with the Kings on a one-year, $3.5 million veteran-minimum deal after missing the entire 2025-26 season with back and leg issues. Three-time All-Star, new uniform, low-cost contract — THAT is the move on today’s transaction wire. But here’s the key: COURT VISION has zero qualifying day-over-day power movers. Big name does not automatically mean big market movement!
And while we’re talking movement, check the extremes in the broader preseason picture. Indiana carries a positive 93.8 hype rating after a 19-and-63 record, while the Clippers sit all the way down at minus 117.7 after going 42-and-41. Those are enormous opposite-direction signals, and they are exactly why I want to see what happens when actual basketball starts answering all this offseason expectation.
Now THIS is my number of the day: 1,246 graded games. That’s the sample behind COURT VISION’s current track record, and the model has hit 68.3 percent accuracy. But the audit catches something else too: a 1.38-percentage-point systematic home bias. It predicted home wins at 56.44 percent; reality came in at 55.06. Meanwhile, the live home-court setting stands at 50 Elo points. That’s how you grade a forecasting system — celebrate the hits and measure the miss!
One Boston note without replaying yesterday’s story: Jordan Walsh has agreed to a three-year, $15 million extension through 2029-30, while Jayson Tatum remains day-to-day with knee soreness. No fresh games to dress up as news, either — the next confirmed one is Miami at Toronto on October 3.
Sacramento gets Simmons, the market holds its ground, and the model gets graded! I’m Duke Sizemore, and I’ll catch you tomorrow!