Duke Sizemore here, and Washington has SIX ranking spots back before the preseason even tips — now THAT is a reset worth putting under the microscope! Here’s what we’ve got today: the Wizards’ ugly closing baseline, the model’s major preseason repricing, and why the market is actually more bullish than the model.
Washington finished 17-and-65 and closed with six straight listed losses. But look at where the damage hit hardest: April seventh against Chicago. The Wizards entered that game at 1243 Elo, lost 129-98 at home, and got tagged for a 23-point Elo drop. Two nights later, another loss to Chicago cost 9.7. Then Miami came into Washington and won 140-117, another 7.8 gone. By the end of that six-loss stretch, the recent swing was minus 48.3, and Washington sat at 1201 Elo, dead last at number 30 in the spotlight rankings.
But okay, okay, okay — NOW we get to the number that has me fired up! The preseason Elo is 1356.1. That’s up from a last Elo of 1201.1, and it moves Washington from 30th to 24th in the preseason context. SIX spots regained! That does not erase 17-and-65. It tells you the preseason expectation is materially different from the level where last season ended.
And check the market: its Washington Elo is higher still at 1406.4. The Wizards carry a 0.0041 title probability with plus-20,000 title odds. That is a long-shot profile, absolutely, but the key today is the repricing relative to that rock-bottom finish.
One warning: there is no fresh market mover here. Nobody cleared the configured power-mover threshold versus August 25th, the title-race data is stale, and Summer League has no new games. We are NOT dressing old numbers up like breaking news.
The next confirmed NBA game in this data is Miami at Toronto on October third. Until then, COURT VISION’s tracked sample stands at 1,246 games: 66.8 percent moneyline accuracy with a .211 Brier score.
Washington lost 48.3 Elo points in that late swing, then regained six ranking positions in the preseason view. THAT is today’s number battle. I’m Duke Sizemore, and I’ll catch you tomorrow!