Duke Sizemore here, and today we are putting Washington’s preseason baseline under the microscope! Here’s what we’ve got: a brutal six-game finish, one loss that did almost HALF the damage, and a model that still gives the Wizards a substantially higher starting point for the preseason.
Okay, Washington finished 17-and-65, ranked 30th, with a closing Elo around 1201. But the number that jumps off the page is MINUS-48.3! That is the Wizards’ recent Elo swing, all coming through six straight losses from April 4 through April 12.
And look at where that slide accelerated. April 7, at home against Chicago: Wizards lose 129-98, and BOOM, 23 Elo points gone in one night! Then Chicago gets them again, 119-108, another 9.7-point decline. Miami follows with a 140-117 win in Washington, costing the Wizards another 7.8. Three games, more than 40 Elo points shaved away. THAT is a late-season skid with weight behind it!
But now THIS is the preseason wrinkle. COURT VISION carries Washington into the preseason at 1305.7 Elo. That is more than 100 points above the 1201.1 last-Elo mark. So the baseline gets a lift, but the ranking does not: Washington remains number 30. No rank change whatsoever.
On availability, AJ Dybantsa, Tre Johnson and Will Riley are listed day-to-day after being shut down for Summer League rest. Tristan Vukcevic is also day-to-day with a knee issue.
And no, I am not manufacturing movement where there isn’t any: there are zero power-rating movers versus August 14, the title-race snapshot is stale, and Summer League has no fresh games. The next confirmed game on this board is Miami against Toronto on October 3.
That is your COURT VISION Daily Brief: Washington’s floor is the story today, and that minus-48.3 late slide is the number to remember. I’m Duke Sizemore, and I’ll catch you tomorrow!