What is UP, it’s Duke Sizemore here, and today we are talking about the COLDEST close to a season in the entire league — a 50-point Elo faceplant that is still echoing into preseason — here’s what we’ve got today!
Okay okay okay, breathe with me — there are NO games on the board, nothing until October 3rd, Miami at Toronto — so this is pure model season. Pure data season. And the sharpest signal in the numbers right now? Atlanta.
The Hawks closed last year on a minus FIFTY point one Elo swing. Minus 50.1! That is not a dip — that is a trap door opening under your sneakers.
Let me walk you through this spiral. April 23rd, Atlanta’s sitting at 1,582 Elo. Feeling decent. They even beat New York 109-108. Then the floor caves in. Three straight losses to the Knicks — 98-114, 97-126… and then the hammer. An 89-140 loss at HOME.
One hundred forty to eighty-nine.
That single game? Minus 30.3 Elo points. Thirty point three! In one night! They fall from 1,562 to 1,531 just like that. By April 30th they’ve slid from 1,582 all the way down to 1,531. Season over. 48-40 final record. Fourteenth in raw Elo.
And if you think I’m being dramatic, check the advanced line from that last game. Offensive rating: 88.9. Defensive rating: 138.7. Net rating: minus 49.8. At a 100.1 pace. That’s not “we missed some shots.” That’s a structural collapse.
Now here’s why it matters — this isn’t a recap show. The preseason model is built on 1,329 games from last season. COURT VISION tracked 1,246 of them with a 66.8% moneyline accuracy and a 0.211 Brier score. Favorites won 66.8% of the time against a 68.3% implied probability. That’s tight calibration. That’s sharp.
So when that model spits out Atlanta at a 1,528.3 preseason Elo — basically in line with their 1,520 carryover and 1,536 market mark — you better believe that late collapse is baked in. They’re 16th in the preseason ranks, down two spots, with a 1.59% title probability. Fifty-to-one odds.
And the market? Silent. No movers since yesterday. Title board unchanged. So we’re not manufacturing hype — we’re reading the signal. And the loudest signal in the gym right now is that Atlanta ended ice cold.
The question for the Hawks isn’t talent. It’s this: was that three-game nosedive noise… or was it truth?
We’ve got two months to debate it.
Duke Sizemore, fired up and watching every decimal point — I’ll catch you tomorrow.