Duke Sizemore here, and we have got FREE AGENCY SHOCKWAVES rolling through the league — cap gymnastics in Boston, DeMar DeRozan sitting on the open market like a five-alarm fire, and the preseason title board MOVING for real — here’s what we’ve got today!
Okay okay okay, first things first — there are no games until October 3rd, Miami at Toronto — so this? This is front-office season. This is calculator season. And Boston just made a sneaky-big move.
Paul George waived his $3.9 million trade bonus. Three point nine MILLION. You don’t just shrug that off. That’s cap flexibility. That’s tax maneuvering. That’s options, baby. Bobby Marks pointed it out — that move changes Boston’s 2026 flexibility picture. And when you’re sitting at 5.40% title probability, plus-1400 odds, Elo at 1637 — every lever matters.
Now THIS is the part that’s spicy — Sacramento waives DeMar DeRozan. Six-time All-Star. And now he is sitting at the top of the unrestricted free-agent board. You want midrange buckets? You want playoff composure? You want a guy who can get you 20 when the offense bogs down? DeRozan is out there. That shifts contenders. Period.
Let’s talk about that contender board — because it is NOT stale. TitleRaceStale? False. This thing is breathing.
Oklahoma City: 24.55% to win it all. Plus-230. One-seven-five-one Elo. That’s the highest in the league — and I mean the HIGHEST. But San Antonio is right there — 21.89%, plus-270, Elo 1750. That is a one-point Elo gap! That’s a coin flip in a thunderstorm!
Knicks at 7.71%. Boston lurking. Detroit at 3.52%. This board has layers.
Now market movers — Utah Jazz, biggest single-day jump: plus-9.8 Elo to 1464.2. And they’ve climbed 19.5 since July 31. Even with Trey Alexander out day-to-day with a rib, Ace Bailey day-to-day with a back — the market is buying something in Salt Lake.
Clippers up 5.5 to 1295.3, even with the Kawhi inquiry cloud hanging out there and Cam Christie sidelined in Summer League with an ankle. Headlines matter.
Portland? Down 4.6 in a one-day giveback to 1494.7 — but still up since July 31. And let’s not forget — Damian Lillard just won the 2026 State Farm 3-Point Contest, and Ja Morant is now in Portland after that deal sending Jerami Grant and Kris Murray to Memphis. That is franchise-shifting stuff.
And speaking of Memphis — cold spotlight. Down 58.4 Elo in their recent swing. Sitting at 1274. Ranked 28th. They lost their final six last year — including a 147-101 beatdown in Utah, minus-24.6 Elo in one night. That’ll chill you. Now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope agrees to a buyout and plans to sign with Philadelphia. Memphis is at 0.11% title probability. Plus-75,000. That’s mountain-climb territory.
No games yet. But the board is alive. The money is moving. And DeRozan is waiting.
That’s Duke Sizemore — and I will catch you tomorrow.