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Mavs Lock In Naji Marshall as Celtics Enter Preseason Off a Sharp Elo Slide

2026-08-03 · 3 min · COURT VISION: The Daily Brief
Dallas extends Naji Marshall through 2029-30, while Boston’s late-season downturn lingers in the preseason data.
Transcript

What is UP, it’s Duke Sizemore here and we’ve got money flying in Dallas, hype exploding in Philly, and Boston trying to shake off a numbers hangover that is still blinking red in the preseason data — here’s what we’ve got today!

Okay okay okay, let’s start in Big D because this one is REAL. Naji Marshall — locked in. Three years, $52.2 million, fully guaranteed, through 2029-30. That keeps him off the 2027 free-agent board entirely. And remember, he had just signed a three-year, $27 million deal in 2024 — so Dallas didn’t wait around. They said, “Nope. We like the fit. We like the direction. We’re doubling down.”

That is roster conviction. That is cap-sheet intention. And I mean THAT.

In a preseason where the title board hasn’t budged an inch — and we are not faking movement when there isn’t any — this is the kind of transaction that actually matters. Commitment years. Guaranteed money. Future flexibility shaped right now.

Now flip it to the East — because if you want energy? Look at Philadelphia.

Top riser on the board: Sixers hype at 87.4 after a 50-44 season. And why? Because they just walked Boston down three straight times — 113-97, 106-93, 109-100 — and shoved the Celtics’ Elo off a cliff.

Boston peaked at 1716 after that 128-96 blowout in the same series… and then? Slide city. Down to 1669 in three games. That’s a negative 38.9 recent swing. That’s not a wobble — that’s a skid.

And here’s what really jumps out: in that latest snapshot, Boston’s advanced line shows a 105.2 offensive rating, 111.1 defensive rating — that’s a minus-5.9 net. Pace at 95. Not exactly Celtics turbo mode.

Add in the context that Jayson Tatum was ruled out for that Game 7 against Philly with a knee issue — day-to-day designation, sure — but when your superstar isn’t right and you drop three straight by double digits? The model remembers.

Preseason numbers have Boston sitting at a 0.059 title probability, 1300 odds. Market Elo 1673.2, preseason Elo 1641.7 — there’s a gap there. Not massive, but noticeable. The betting market’s giving them a little more respect than the pure carryover math.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City and San Antonio are still sitting at the top of the board — unchanged, steady, no movement — so we’re not wasting breath pretending there’s drama where there isn’t any.

Bottom line? Dallas is investing. Philly is surging in perception. And Boston’s got math to clean up before October 3 tips this thing off.

That’s your Daily Brief — high velocity, no fluff.

Duke Sizemore, and I will catch you tomorrow.