With the 2026 free agency moratorium lifted, ESPN confirms the formalization of four league-altering deals: Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia, Kawhi Leonard to Toronto, and LaMelo Ball to Minnesota. Each transaction was executed in its assigned call window as the market officially opened, marking one of the most volatile single days of roster movement the modern NBA has seen.
In Las Vegas, the Lakers, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Warriors have advanced to the Summer League semifinals. Houston’s Bruce Thornton and Tristen Newton have driven the Rockets’ surge, while Los Angeles’ depth core continues to outpace even top draft talent like Chicago’s Caleb Wilson. Tournament data is mostly settled now, but it has already offered revealing glimpses of which young cores may break rotation ranks come fall.
Washington’s preseason Elo stabilizes at 1330.7 after a brutal -48.3 swing to close last year’s 17-65 campaign. The roster now pairs veteran bigs Deandre Ayton and Anthony Davis with No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa, though both Dybantsa and several other young pieces are currently day-to-day for minor rest and health reasons. Even so, the Wizards’ preseason rank has climbed from 30th to 25th, signaling the market’s recognition of upward potential despite lingering uncertainty.
Model-tracking remains strong at 66.8% favorite win accuracy based on 1,246 historical games. With no on-court play scheduled before October 5’s Atlanta–Memphis preseason opener, these are projection months—when roster moves and Elo recalibrations matter far more than results. The Spurs and Thunder still share the top title probability at 22.6% each, though the race itself remains unchanged for now.
"Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami: the first domino in a four-team superstar migration."
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